INTRODUCTION:

The winter dredge survey is the only bay-wide fishery-independent effort to estimate the number of blue crabs living in the Chesapeake Bay. The winter dredge survey produces information that is essential for the management of the species, such as an estimate of the number of crabs over-wintering in the bay and the number of young crabs entering the population each year. Also calculated is the estimated number of females that could spawn within the year, which is an important indicator of future spawning potential. Estimating the total number of crabs living in the bay allows us to calculate the percentage of the crab population that is removed by harvest each year. A pilot version of the winter dredge survey was first conducted in 1988 with the cooperation of the University of Maryland Chesapeake Biological Lab. In 1989 the Virginia Institute of Marine Science joined the survey, and the two states continue to sample each winter from December through March.

WHERE WE SAMPLE:

Since 1994, the survey has been conducted according to a stratified random design (Rothschild and Sharov, 1996). The bay is divided into three regions or strata: Lower Bay (the mouth of the Chesapeake to Windmill Point, VA), Middle Bay (Windmill Point, VA to Cove Point, MD) and the Upper Bay/Tributaries (Cove Point to Pooles Island and all of the Bay's tributaries). Each year, a total of 1500 sites in waters deeper than 5 feet are randomly selected. The number of sites assigned in each region is proportional to its area.

HOW WE SAMPLE:

A six-foot-wide Virginia crab dredge fitted with a half-inch nylon mesh liner is towed along the bottom for one minute at a speed of three knots. Latitude and longitude, measured with a Differential Global Positioning System (GPS), is recorded at the beginning and end of each tow to determine distance covered. This distance is multiplied by the dredge's width to calculate the area covered. Beginning and ending depth, water temperature, and salinity are recorded at each site.

All crabs collected at each site are measured and weighed. Crabs are measured from point to point across the top shell or carapace. The sex of each crab is determined and the maturity of females is noted.

As a final part of our survey, we do annual experiments to determine how well our dredge catches blue crabs. This is known as gear efficiency. For more information see: Volstad et al. 2000 and Sharov et al. 2001.

HOW AND WHY WE DETERMINE THE AGE OF CRABS:

We divide the male and female crabs into different categories based on age, size, and maturity. Crabs that are smaller than 2.4 inches across the carapace are considered to be young-of-the-year crabs. These are the new arrivals to the bay and will form the backbone of the recreational and commercial fisheries in the late summer or fall. Female crabs bigger than 2.4 inches across are the females that could spawn this year. The number of spawning females is related to the number of young crabs that can potentially be produced each year and is an important indicator of the health of the stock. Combined, all crabs bigger than 2.4 inches are grouped together and considered to be the harvestable stock for the upcoming year. These crabs will support the recreational and commercial fisheries throughout the summer.

CALCULATING THE NUMBER OF CRABS:

The results of the winter dredge survey are reported as density of crabs. This is the average number of crabs we find within a 1,000 meter by 1,000 meter area (1,000 meters squared or 1000m²). The density of crabs for the different age categories is calculated each year. If you are interested in that information please click on this link to see a table of different age class densities for 1990 to 2022.

The figures below show the annual density since 1990 for important age categories as well as the densities of all age categories combined.

• The density of juvenile crabs increased in 2022 (Figure 1) however the the density of crabs bigger
• than 2.4 inches decreased in 2022 (Figure 2).
  
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• The density of male crabs greater than 5 inches decreased in 2022 (Figure 3).
  



• The density of spawning females decreased in 2022 (Figure 4).



• Overall, total crab density decreased in 2022 (Figure 5).

HOW MANY CRABS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE LIVING IN THE BAY?

Managers estimate abundance, the number of crabs estimated to be living in the Chesapeake Bay, by multiplying the density of all crabs by the area of the bay. Each year the overwintering mortality, those crabs that die in the winter, is estimated and abundance is adjusted for that loss.

Juvenile abundace increased in 2022 but overall, total crab abundance decreased in 2022​.

In 2017 an update to the blue crab stock assessment recommended a female-specific target of 196 million spawning age female crabs and a threshold of 72.5 million spawning age female crabs that were adopted by Maryland, Virginia, and the Potomac River Fisheries Commission. In 2022 the abundance of spawning age females decreased to 97 million crabs but remained above the recommended threshold of 72.5 million crabs.

The total estimated number of crabs living in the bay for each year of the survey is listed below:

Year	Millions of Crabs	Year	Millions of Crabs	Year	Millions of Crabs
1990	791	2001	254	2012	765
1991	828	2002	315	2013	300
1992	367	2003	334	2014	297
1993	852	2004	270	2015	411
1994	487	2005	400	2016	553
1995	487	2006	313	2017	455
1996	661	2007	251​	2018	371​
1997	680	2008	293	20​19	​ 594
1998	353​	2009	396	2020	405
1999	308	2010	663	2021	282
2000	281	2011	452	2022	227​

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